Silver’s price rose by over 18% in Q1 2025, rising to the highest price since 2012. The price action in Q2 took the volatile precious metal over 22% lower to below $28 per ounce. In my Q1 precious metals report on Barchart, I wrote:

The April 2 tariff announcement excluded copper and “bullion,” which sent metals prices lower. Silver took it on the chin on April 3 and April 4, falling to just below the $29.25 level. 

Silver’s decline took the price around $1.70 per ounce lower than that level to $27.545 on April 7 before the price bounced to over $31. Gold has remained on a bullish path, but the recent correction damaged silver’s case for higher prices. I concluded the Q1 report on silver with the following:

Silver tightness that contributed to the rally could dissipate as there will be no tariffs on the metal, which could send prices lower over the coming weeks and months. However, silver remains in a fundamental deficit, which could support the price after the current risk-off selling period.

At nearly $33 per ounce, silver remains in a bullish trend. Time will tell if the damage from the selloff prevents the metal from a parabolic rally to challenge the all-time highs. 

Silver’s correction was ugly

May COMEX silver futures plunged in early April after reaching $35.495 per ounce on March 28, 2025, the highest price since March 2012. 

The daily chart highlights the swift 22.4% correction that took May silver futures to a $27.545 per ounce low on April 7. 

While silver took it on the chin from late March through early April, the price recovered to around $33 per ounce on April 16, above the midpoint of the most recent high and low. 

Silver remains in a bullish trend since the 2020 low

COMEX silver futures reached a bottom of $11.64 in March 2020 when pandemic-related selling sent markets across all asset classes to lows. 

The continuous monthly silver futures chart illustrates silver’s bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs since the 2020 bottom. While silver futures experienced a significant correction from the late March high to the early April low, the decline did not negate the long-term bullish trend.  

Tariff news on bullion ignited the selling

Tight supplies partially caused the silver rally that led to the March 28 high as silver flowed from Europe and other regions to the United States due to the uncertainty of tariffs. London is the hub of international wholesale silver and gold trading. At the same time, futures trade in the U.S. market, and participants shipped silver and other metals to the U.S., tightening the EFP, or exchange for physical spreads, pushing silver prices higher. 

On April 2, U.S. President Trump declared “Liberation Day,” announcing substantial tariffs on trading partners worldwide. The devil was in the details as the tariffs excluded silver, gold, copper, and other metals, causing the downdraft in the speculative silver market.    

The case for higher or lower silver prices

Silver prices have substantially recovered from the April 7 low. The bullish case for the speculative metal includes:

• Silver’s bullish technical trend remains intact, despite the correction.
• Gold has made new highs, rising to over $3,260 per ounce on the June COMEX futures contract.
• The dollar index traded below the 100 level; a weakening dollar tends to support higher precious metals prices, and silver is no exception.
• Silver traded above a technical resistance level at the late 2012 $35.445 peak in late March.
• According to The Silver Institute, silver will remain in a “sizable deficit in 2025.” The forecast is for a 150 million-ounce supply-demand deficit.
• Silver is a highly speculative metal with considerable upside potential, considering that its highs in 1980 and 2011 highs were around $50 per ounce.
• The most recent selling likely cleaned weak longs from the silver futures market. 

The bearish case for silver includes:

• Long-term interest rates remain high, increasing the cost of holding long silver positions.
• The recent risk-off selling illustrated silver’s volatility, which could impede speculators from buying in the current environment.
• Silver has disappointed buyers expecting the metal to break higher to challenge the 1980 and 2011 highs over the past decade as gold has made new nominal record highs, and silver has remained substantially below its price peak. 

The bottom line is that silver’s recovery from the April 7 low was impressive, and bullish factors could become more influential over the coming weeks and months. Silver’s path of least resistance of silver depends on investment and speculative demand. 

 

Expect lots of volatility- $37.58 is a critical upside target for bulls

The long-term quarterly silver futures chart highlights the next upside targets for the volatile precious metal. 

The chart shows that the new upside target is at the early 2012 $37.58 per ounce high, which could be the gateway for a challenge of the 2011 $49.82 and the 1980 $50.36 peaks. 

Gold’s 1980 peak was $875 per ounce, and the yellow metal’s price has eclipsed that level by more than 3.7 times. It may only be a matter of time before a herd of buyers descends on the silver market as the technical trend remains bullish, the fundamental deficit supports higher prices, and silver has become historically inexpensive compared to gold. A move over $37.58 per ounce will confirm the bullish trend and could lead to a parabolic move. 

On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.